EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
July 2026 new orders were up 5% compared to the prior month of June 2026 (which had been down 5% from May), but up 9% compared to July 2025. Year to date, new orders are up 5% over 2025.
July 2026 shipments were up 3% compared to June 2026 and up 8% from July 2025. Year to date, shipments are now up 1% from 2025.
July 2026 backlogs are up 2% compared to June 2026 and 12% from July 2025.
Receivable levels were down 1% from June 2026, and also down 1% compared to July 2025.
Inventories were up 1% from June 2026, and up 4% from July 2025.
Payrolls were up 4% compared to June 2026, up 10% compared to July 2025, and up 3% year to date.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 7.9 points to 109.3.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes both declined slightly in September. Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones remained the top categories consumers desired to buy over the next six months. Spending plans for refrigerators and TV sets fell the most on a six-month moving average basis,while plans for other durable goods moderated slightly.
Housing
Existing-home sales decreased by 2.0% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.
Month-over-month sales held steady in the West and declined in the Northeast, Midwest and South. Year-over-year sales were unchanged in the South and declined in the Northeast, Midwest and West.
“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it’s not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year. Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”
Total Existing-Home Sales for August
- 0% decrease in existing-home sales¹ month-over-month.
- 2% decrease in existing-home sales year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. The last time sales activity fell below 4.0 million was in June 2025.
Single-Family Homes in August
- 9% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.62 million, down 1.1% from August 2025.
- $434,800: Median home price, up 1.7% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops in August
- 7% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 360,000
- Down 2.7% from last year.
- $371,600: Median price, up 1.5% from August 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 67%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in August, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.54% in July and up from 6.59% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 684,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.4 percent above the July 2026 rate of 643,000, and is 2.0 percent below the August 2025 rate of 698,000.
Compared to August 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 2.0% overall with sales also down 26.8% in the West and down 20.7% in the Northeast, but up 3.4% in the South and up 22.5% in the Midwest.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.8 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.3 percent, revised up 0.2 percentage point, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.6 percent, also revised up 0.2 percentage point.
THOUGHTS
The participants in our stats program saw new orders, shipments, and backlogs increase year over year for the third straight month marking the first time that we’ve seen such a continuous positive trend for all three categories simultaneously since (checks notes…) the COVID-boom days in mid-2021.
Certainly not expecting a return to those historic levels, but furniture continues to remain fairly resilient with year to date new orders up 5% over 2025 for our participants on average. But of course, it is not a homogenous industry, and certain sectors are faring better than others, with high and middle generally outperforming low-end, and upholstery outpacing case goods currently.
The Fed increased rates by 0.25% in September, so it remains to be seen how that will impact an already sluggish housing market, which ultimately drives consumer furniture purchases. However, as we said last month, hopefully the elevated backlogs will provide good momentum for the second half of our reporting year despite these and other headwinds with tariffs and transportation, among others.
We look forward to seeing many of you in High Point in a couple weeks.
.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
