EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were down 5% compared to the prior month of May 2026 (which had been up 13% over April), but up 11% compared to June 2025. Year to date, new orders are up 4% over 2025.
June 2026 shipments were up 2% compared to May 2026 and up 3% from June 2025. However, year to date, shipments remain even with 2025.
June 2026 backlogs are up 2% compared to May 2026 and up 11% from June 2025.
Receivable levels were up 2% from May 2026, but down 1% compared to June 2025.
Inventories were down 1% from April 2026, but up 3% from May 2025.
Payrolls were down 3% compared to April 2026, but up 1% compared to May 2025.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 (1985=100) in August, down from 90.2 in July.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose by 6.8 points to 121.2, following three months of consecutive decline.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 5.8 points to 68.2.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
On a six-month moving average basis, auto purchasing expectations remained strong. Homebuying expectations declined slightly for the month but maintained an upward trend after slumping to decade-lows in early 2024. Among consumers’ planned purchases of durable goods within six months, furniture and smartphones remained the most desired items, but expectations for smartphones continued to moderate in August.
Housing
Existing-home sales decreased by 1.7% month-over-month and increased 0.7% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, held steady in the West, and declined in the Midwest and South. Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and West and were flat in the Northeast and South.
“Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and there’s no doubt that the housing market would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%.”
Total Existing-Home Sales for July
- 1.7% decrease in existing-home sales month-over-month.
- 0.7% increase in existing-home sales year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million.
Single-Family Homes in July
- 1.9% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.69 million, up 0.8% from July 2025.
- $440,300: Median home price, up 1.9% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops in July
- No change in sales month-over-month, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000.
- Unchanged from last year.
- $371,800: Median price, up 2.2% from July 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.54%: Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in July, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.49% in June and down from 6.72% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in July 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 607,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the June 2026 rate of 678,000, and is 6.3 percent below the July 2025 rate of 648,000.
Compared to July 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 6.3% overall with sales also down 5.2% in the South and down 50.6% (not a typo) in the Midwest, but up 2.2% in the West and up 95.5% (not a typo) in the Northeast.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.8 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.3 percent, revised up 0.2 percentage point, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.6 percent, also revised up 0.2 percentage point
THOUGHTS
This month, the participants in our stats program saw monthly new orders increase year over year for the third straight month. In addition, year-to-date new orders through June 2026 are now up 4% compared to last year.
Despite the challenging headwinds provided by mixed consumer confidence, housing, and other economic indicators, furniture has remained surprisingly resilient. Hopefully the recent new order trends will continue, which along with the corresponding increase in backlogs, will provide good momentum going into the second half of our reporting year.
NAR’s Chief Economist stated the housing market would be thriving with mortgage rates closer to 6% (currently averaging 6.5%), so it will be interesting to see what the Fed does at its upcoming September meeting. Regardless, housing affordability has continued to trend positively which will potentially spur additional activity, ultimately driving consumer furniture purchases.
Energy and transportation costs continue to be a challenge though nothing the industry hasn’t managed through before and there was a new wrinkle to the ever-developing tariff story this month, this time with our neighbors to the North. On the flip-side, the recent jobs report provides reason for optimism for the remainder of the year.
Good luck for a productive and successful market for those who will be in High Point in the coming weeks.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
