EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were down 4% compared to the prior month of March 2026, but up 3% compared to April 2025. Year to date, new orders remain even with 2025.
April 2026 shipments were down 6% compared to March 2026 and flat with April 2025. Year to date, shipments are down 1% with 2025.
April 2026 backlogs were down 1% compared to March 2026 and flat with April 2025.
Receivable levels were down 5% from March 2026, and down 8% compared to April 2025.
Inventories were flat with March 2026, but up 4% from April 2025.
Payrolls were down 2% compared to March 2026, but up 1% compared to April 2025.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® inched up by 0.6 points to 91.2 (1985=100) in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.0 points to 116.4.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 3.0 points to 74.4.
“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”
Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months improved slightly, shifting from “no” to “maybe”, and the proportion saying “yes” picked up modestly. Buying plans for autos continued rising on a six-month moving average basis in June. Homebuying expectations also rose on a six-month rolling basis. Consumers planning purchases six months ahead continued to rank furniture followed by smartphones as the most desired items, but expectations for both categories moderated further in June.
Housing
Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% month-over-month and year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West, and fell in the Northeast.
“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December. This is great news for the housing market and the economy,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum. Even with mortgage rates ticking up compared to earlier in the year, they remain lower than a year ago and are essentially at the long-term historical average. Income gains are also outpacing home price growth by a small margin in most parts of the country.”
“Increased home sales mean more economic activity — lawn care, furniture purchases, moving services, mortgage originations and other related business activities all get a boost,” Yun added.
Total Existing-Home Sales for May
- 2% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month.
- 2% increase in existing-home sales year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in May
- 5% increase in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 million, up 3.3% from May 2025.
- $434,300: Median home price, up 1.3% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in May
- No change in sales month-over-month with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000
- 8% increase from last year.
- $378,200: Median price, up 1.7% from May 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 44%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in May, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.33% in April and down from 6.82% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in May 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 580,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.3 percent below the April 2026 rate of 626,000, and is 6.8 percent below the May 2025 rate of 622,000.
Compared to May 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 6.8% overall with sales also down 15.4% in the South, down 17.0% in the West, and down 3.7% in the Midwest, but up 17.2% in the Northeast.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.6 percent, also revised up 0.1 percentage point, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.4 percent, the same as previously estimated.
THOUGHTS
Continuing the trend from 2025, new orders continue to alternate between monthly gains and losses in 2026 compared to 2025 so far for the participants in our stats program, which does little to provide the consistency or momentum the industry has been craving as a whole for some time.Consumer confidence, housing, and other economic indicators also remain mixed as uncertainty driven in part by current world events continues.
During its June meeting, the Fed opted to keep rates steady under new leadership based upon their assessment of prevailing economic trends.
Tarriff refunds under IEEPA have continued to slowly flow, while the industry anxiously awaits what will happen next, with initial reports of 10-12.5% on over 50 countries.
So this seems to be shaping up to be another challenging year, but nothing the industry hasn’t experienced and overcome many times before.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
