EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were up 2% compared to the prior month of January 2026 and up 1% compared to February 2025. Year to date, new orders are up 1%
February 2026 shipments were up 4% compared to January 2026 and up 2% from February 2025. Year to date, shipments are down -3%.
February 2026 backlogs were up 2% compared to January 2026 and flat with February 2025.
Receivable levels were down 1% from January 2026, and down 3% compared to February 2025.
Inventories were down 4% from January 2026 and up 7% from February 2025.
Payrolls were down 4% compared to January 2026, but up 1% compared to February 2025.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 (1985=100) in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 0.3 points to 123.8.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 1.2 points to 72.2.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”
Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months continued to shift from “yes” and “maybe” in February, to “no” in April. Nonetheless, the proportion saying “yes” remained well above the other responses. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases. Among pricy items, furniture remains the top expected purchase.
Buying plans for autos continued rising on a six-month moving average basis in April, with used cars remaining the clear preference over new cars. Homebuying expectations staged a mild recovery on a six-month rolling basis for both existing and new units in the month, with consumers continuing to prefer existing homes to newly built ones. Purchase plans for all types of home furnishings, white goods, and electronics on a six-month moving average basis continued to improve in April.
Housing
Existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% month-over-month in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
“March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
Month-over-month sales fell in all four regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and West and fell in the Northeast and Midwest.
NAR also revised its 2026 housing forecast. Due to the upward trajectory of mortgage rates, NAR now expects existing-home sales to increase 4% this year, down from the previous projection. New-home sales are now expected to remain flat, a downward revision from the prior forecast of a 5% gain. The median home price forecast remains unchanged, with prices still projected to rise 4% in 2026.
Total Existing-Home Sales for March
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3.6% decrease in existing-home sales1 month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million.
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1.0% decrease in sales year-over-year.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in March
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3.5% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.63 million, down 0.3% from March 2025.
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$412,400: Median home price, up 1.3% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in March
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5.4% decrease in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000, down 7.9% from last year.
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$371,500: Median price, up 2.3% from March 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.18%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in March, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.05% in February and down from 6.65% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 (February-March 2026 release delayed to May) were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 587,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.6 percent below the December 2025 rate of 712,000, and is 11.3 percent below the January 2025 rate of 662,000.
Compared to January 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 11.3% overall with sales also down 8.8% in the South and down 28.7% in the West, but up 18.0% in the Midwest and flat (0.0%) in the Northeast.
Other
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised down 0.7 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously estimated. Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the previous quarter.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending and exports, and an acceleration in investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned up.
THOUGHTS
It was good to see many of you in High Point for the Spring Market.
While traffic was clearly down overall for a variety of reasons, those in attendance were there to do business and upbeat despite the many outside distractions.
The impact of fuel prices on the overall economy and specifically on the price of materials (poly/cushions/etc.), and how/when to pass along, were widely discussed.
Tariffs were again a hot topic, but this time how and when they would be refunded, a process that most we spoke to had already started.
As to our stats program, new orders and shipments were up in February 2026 over the prior year and month after a slow start. However, certain segments of the industry continue to perform better than others overall, with upholstery generally outperforming case goods, and the high/middle outperforming the low-end.
There continue to be some signs of hope with consumer confidence despite all the “noise” and people continue to buy furniture, so perhaps the industry will finally see the now long-time, pent-up demand realized as the year moves along.
In the meantime, it seems like another season to control what can be controlled, focus on what companies do best, look for opportunities to operate more efficiently, and strengthen relationships with vendors, employees, and customers.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
