EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New orders were down 3% compared to the prior month of July 2025 (following the 13% increase from June 2025). New orders were also down 3% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. However, year to date through August 2025, new orders remain down 1% compared to 2024.

Shipments were up 5% compared to the prior month of July 2025. However, shipments were down 6% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. Year to date through August 2025, shipments remain down 1% compared to 2024. August 2025 backlogs were flat compared to August 2024, and down 1% from July 2025.

Receivable levels were up 1% from July 2025, but down 2% from August 2024.

Inventories were up 3% in August 2025 from both the prior month and year, which may be indicative of tariffs impacting costs and ordering patterns.

Inventories and employee/payroll levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.

Due to the ongoing US Government shutdown, much of the monthly economic data normally presented in this report has not been updated. For reference, we have left last month’s data in the report, but the text is highlighted in light blue within the PDF. In this blog, the text will be this color. 

Housing

Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and remained flat in the West.

“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”

“Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels,” Yun added. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for September

• 1.5% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million.
• 4.1% increase in sales year-over-year.

Single-Family-Homes Sales in September

• 1.7% increase in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.69 million, up 4.5% from September 2024.
• $420,700: Median home price in September, up 2.3% from last year.

Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in September

• No change month-over-month or year-over-year; sales remain at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 units.
• $360,300: Median price, down 0.6% from September 2024.

Mortgage Rates

• 6.35%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in September, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.59% in August and up from 6.18% one year ago.

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates
released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.5% above the July
2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4% above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.

Compared to August 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 15.4% overall with sales also up 21.0% in the South, up
40.9% in the Northeast, up 20.3% in the Midwest, but down 5.7% in the West.

Other

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June),
according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6%
(revised).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation
of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an
acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9%
in the second quarter, revised up 1.0 percentage point from the previous estimate.

It was certainly great to see many of you in High Point last month for Market.

It was again a Market dominated by discussions of tariffs and the economy as whole. While opinions of individual exhibitors varied, conditions for companies working with designers and less costconscious customers were generally favorable. On the flip-side, many companies serving the lower end of the market were getting opportunities and atbats with customers they may not have otherwise seen. Most buyers also seem to understand that tariffs in some form or fashion are here to stay, and they are ready to move forward.

But regardless of what end of the market you’re in, there was one overriding consensus, and that is that retail is slow. This is really no surprise given the consumer confidence reports from the last few months, coupled with the current government shutdown, as well as the year to date results of our survey participants.

The recently announced deal with China will hopefully bring some clarity to the industry, and along with continued interest rate cuts, and business in Washington eventually getting back to “normal,” some stability to the overall economy that will encourage consumers to spend at retail.