EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were up 1% compared to the prior month of February 2026, but down 2% compared to March 2025. Year to date, new orders are even with 2025.
March 2026 shipments were up 6% compared to February 2026 and up 2% from March 2025. Year to date, shipments are down 1% from 2025.
March 2026 backlogs were down 1% compared to February 2026 and up 1% with March 2025.
Receivable levels were down 1% from February 2026 and down 3% compared to March 2025.
Inventories were down 2% from February 2026, but up 4% from March 2025.
Payrolls were up 8% compared to February 2026 and up 4% compared to March 2025.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the downward trend from prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 (1985=100) in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 3.2 points to 121.2.
The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 1.0 points to 74.4. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was May 1–19, encompassing the ongoing war in the Middle East that is placing upward pressure on prices globally.
“Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers’ expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.”
Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months continued to shift from “yes” to “no” in May. Homebuying expectations inched higher on a six-month rolling basis overall, as plans to buy existing homes rose, offsetting a small dip in newly built units. Spending plans for white goods, home furnishings, and electronics eased a tad or were unchanged on a six-month moving average basis.
Housing
Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and the South, were unchanged in the Northeast, and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
“Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains.”
Total Existing-Home Sales for March
- 0.2% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million.
- No change in sales year-over-year.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in March
- No change in sales month-over-month with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.64 million, down 0.3% from April 2025.
- $422,300: Median home price, up 1.0% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in March
- 2.7% increase in sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000
- 2.7% increase from last year.
- $374,100: Median price, up 1.1% from April 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.33%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in April, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.18% in March and down from 6.73% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 622,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.2 percent below the March 2026 rate of 663,000, and is 11.3 percent below the April 2025 rate of 701,000.
Compared to April 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 11.3% overall with sales also down 14.7% in the South, down 12.9% in the Northeast, and down 21.4% in the Midwest, but up 4.6% in the West.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending and exports and an acceleration in investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned up.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.5 percent, the same as previously estimated, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.4 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point.
THOUGHTS
Similar to much of the economic data included throughout this report, monthly new orders and shipments continue to be uneven for the participants in our stats program as year-to-date March 2026 new orders and shipments are now flat and down 1%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2025.
As to retail in general, a recent report stated sales were up just under 1% for Top 100 Retailers in 2025, which is materially in line with the 1% overall decline experienced by our participants for the same period.
In current events, military conflicts and other tensions in the Middle East continue to be drag on consumer confidence as well as aggravating existing inflationary pressures, particularly on freight rates and certain raw material costs. But on the bright side, industry reporting on Memorial Day activity was largely positive despite the current headwinds. Tarriff refunds have begun to flow, with NBC News reporting that $20 billion has already been refunded through May 2026. Based upon recent discussions with a handful of people in the industry, we have heard that tariff refunds are slowly coming to those who got an early start.
Looking ahead, the Fed has another meeting scheduled for mid-June, so it will be interesting to see what actions may be taken under new leadership and how it will impact a lackluster housing market and ultimately furniture sales for the remainder of the year.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
