March 2026 Furniture Insights®

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New orders were up 1% compared to the prior month of December 2025 and flat compared to January 2025.
January 2026 shipments were flat compared to December 2025 and down 7% from January 2025.
January 2026 backlogs were flat compared to both January 2025 and December 2025.
Receivable levels were up 15% from December 2025, and were up a more modest 1% compared to January 2025.
Inventories were up 7% with December 2025 and up 9% from January 2025.
Payrolls were up 8% compared to December 2025, but down 2% compared to January 2025.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.

National

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.8 points in March to 91.8 (1985=100), from 91.0 in February.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 4.6 points to 123.3.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— declined by 1.7 points to 70.9. While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations.

“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.”

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”

Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government. Consequently, the percentage of consumers stating that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net skyrocketed from 34.9% to 42.4%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now plunged.

Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months shifted from “yes” and “maybe” in February, to “no” in March. Nonetheless, the proportion saying “yes” remained well above the other responses. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases. Among all expensive items, furniture persists as the top expected purchase.

Homebuying expectations were somewhat lower on a six-month rolling basis for both existing and new units in the month, with consumers continuing to prefer existing homes to newly built ones. Purchase plans for all types of home furnishings, white goods, and electronics on a six-month moving average basis improved in March.

Housing

Existing-home sales increased by 1.7% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.

Month-over-month sales rose in the Midwest, South and West, and fell in the Northeast. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and fell in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index—increasing to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago. This marks the highest level since March 2022.

“Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Still, there is a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity. There are more than 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by one million.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for February

1.7% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million.
1.4% decrease in sales year over year.

Single-Family-Homes Sales in February

2.4% increase in sales month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.73 million, down 1.1% from February 2025.
$401,800: Median home price, up 0.2% from last year.

Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in February

5.3% decrease in sales month over month and year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 360,000, down 5.3% fromlast year.
$358,100: Median price, up 0.9% from February 2025.

Mortgage Rates

6.05%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in February, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.10% in January and 6.84% one year ago.

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 587,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.6 percent below the December 2025 rate of 712,000, and is 11.3 percent below the January 2025 rate of 662,000.

Compared to January 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were down 11.3% overall with sales also down 8.8% in the South and down 28.7% in the West, but up 18.0% in the Midwest and flat (0.0%) in the Northeast.

Other

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised down 0.7 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously estimated. Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the previous quarter.

GDP for 2025

Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, the same as previously estimated. The PCE price index also increased 2.6 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8 percent, both the same as previously estimated.

THOUGHTS
Overall, January 2026 didn’t provide the sort of hot start we were hoping for from our survey participants as a whole. Hampered by weather and other challenges to start the year, new orders were flat and shipments were down 7% compared to 2025, respectively.

Back to the present, the impact of geopolitical events continues to develop with increases in transportation and foam costs (and decreases in availability) the most immediate and obvious concerns. While somewhat a new twist on an old problem, this feels different due to its global reach.

The tariff situation also continues to evolve, as following last month’s Supreme Court elimination of the IEEPA tariffs, the Administration appears to be setting the groundwork for a more permanent and legally defensible system. However, the resulting uncertainty will continue for the foreseeable future proving both challenges and opportunities.

Despite the uncertainty, there are still some positive trends as consumer confidence and other similar indicators have thus far remained stable. Housing affordability also continues to improve, though the hopes of additional interest rate cuts seem unlikely in the near-term due to inflation concerns. In fact, some within the Fed are now signaling the possibility of a rate hike.

So, it seems 2026 could be shaping up to be another bumpy ride.

On a lighter note, we look forward to welcoming many of you in High Point in a few weeks for some beautiful North Carolina Spring weather.

MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance Partner

Mark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group.