EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were down 8% compared to the prior month of September 2025 (following the 15% increase from August 2025). New orders were also down 1% in October 2025 compared to October 2024. However, year to date through October 2025, new orders remain flat compared to 2024.
Shipments were up 2% compared to the prior month of September 2025 and up 4% compared to October 2024. Year to date through October 2025, shipments have now pulled even compared to 2024.
October 2025 backlogs were down 2% compared to October 2024, and down 3% from September 2025.
Receivable levels were up 4% from September 2025, but down 2% from October 2024.
Inventories were up 1% from September 2025 and up 4% from October 2024.
Payrolls were up 3% compared to September 2025 and up 5% compared to October 2024, which are materially in line with shipments.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.
Due to the prior US Government shutdown, certain monthly economic data normally presented in this report is still not available. For reference, we have left the last available month’s data in the report, but the text is in light blue.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—plummeted by 9.5 points to 116.8 in December.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—held steady at 70.7. The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 11 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead.
“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.
Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances—including interest rates, taxes and income, banks, and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.”
Consumers appeared more cautious about plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months. Homebuying expectations also ticked downward. Plans to buy household appliances all dipped, as did purchasing plans for PCs and laptops, as well as video game consoles. By contrast, future spending plans for smartphones, tablets, and digital cameras continued to trend upward on a six-month moving average basis. Used cars, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular within their categories for future purchases.
Housing
Existing-home sales increased by 0.5% in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West.
“Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
“Wage growth is outpacing home price gains, which improves housing affordability. Still, future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails to keep pace with demand,” Yun added. As has been the case throughout the year, single-family home sales outperformed condominium sales in November.
Total Existing-Home Sales for November
- 5% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million.
- 0% decrease in sales year over year.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in November
- 8% increase in sales month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million, down 0.8% from November 2024.
- $414,300: Median home price in November, up 1.2% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in November
- 6% decrease in sales month over month and year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000.
- $358,600: Median price, up 0.1% from November 2024.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.24%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in November, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.25% in October and 6.81% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.5% above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4% above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.
Compared to August 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 15.4% overall with sales also up 21.0% in the South, up 40.9% in the Northeast, up 20.3% in the Midwest, but down 5.7% in the West.
Other
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9% in the second quarter.
THOUGHTS
First of all, I would like to recognize and thank Sherry White for her many years of dedication and service to our Furniture Insights program and congratulate her on her upcoming retirement. We will miss you, Sherry!
Monthly new orders for participants in our survey continued to alternate back and forth between increases and decreases compared to the prior year (-1%, +7%, -3%, +13%, +3%, -1%, -9%, +1%, -5%, -3%).
However, year-to-date new orders and shipments through October 2025 are now even with 2024, which while nothing to write home about given calendar 2024 ended up 1% down from 2023 (which was up 5% over 2022), it is at least a positive sign given the many challenges from the first half of the year.
And while retail has been slow, recent industry reporting of certain key retailers shows improvement in recent months and optimism for 2026 based upon these trends and expectations of interest rates and housing for next year.
Here’s wishing everyone a happy and prosperous new year.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
