November 2025 Furniture Insights®

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New orders were up 15% compared to the prior month of August 2025 and up 7% compared to September 2024. And with this month’s surge, year to date through September 2025, new orders are now materially even compared to 2024.

Shipments were up 3% compared to the prior month of August 2025 and up 6% compared to September 2024. However, year to date through Septebmer 2025, shipments remain down 1% compared to 2024.

With the increase in new orders, September 2025 backlogs were up 5% compared to August 2025 and up 2% compared to September 2024.

Receivable levels were up 2% from August 2025, but down 3% from September 2024. Inventories were up 2% compared to September 2024, but flat with August 2025.

Payrolls were up 4% compared to August 2025 and up 6% compared to September 2024, which are materially in line with shipments. Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.

Due to the recent US Government shutdown, much of the monthly economic data normally presented in this report has not been updated. For reference, we have left last month’s data in the report, but the text is changed to blue in this blog and highlighted in light blue in the PDF.

National

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 (1985=100) from 95.5 in October.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead.

“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions. The labor market differential—the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’—dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline. All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”

Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”

Plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months declined in November following little change since May. After staging a mild comeback on a six-month moving average basis from early-summer lows, expectations for purchasing cars ticked downward, for both new and used vehicles. Purchasing plans for household appliances and most electronics also edged lower in November but remained above 2025 lows. Nonetheless, used cars, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular future purchases among these categories. Homebuying expectations also ticked down in November but remained near two-year highs.

Housing

Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.

Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.

“Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “First-time homebuyers are facing headwinds in the Northeast due to a lack of supply and in the West because of high home prices. First-time buyers fared better in the Midwest because of the plentiful supply of affordable houses and in the South because there is sufficient inventory.”

“Rents are decelerating which will reduce inflation and encourage the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates and pulling back their quantitative tightening,” Yun added. “This will help bring more homebuyers into the market since the Fed rate has an indirect impact on mortgage rates.”

Total Existing-Home Sales for October

1.2% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million.
1.7% increase in sales year-over-year.

Single-Family-Homes Sales in October

0.8% increase in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.71 million, up 1.9% from October 2024.
$420,600: Median home price in October, up 2.2% from last year.

Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in October

5.4% increase in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 390,000, unchanged from October 2024.
$363,700: Median price, up 0.9% from October 2024.

Mortgage Rates

6.25%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in October, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.35% in September and 6.43% one year ago.

From September 2025 FI Report: Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.5% above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4% above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.

Compared to August 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 15.4% overall with sales also up 21.0% in the South, up
40.9% in the Northeast, up 20.3% in the Midwest, but down 5.7% in the West.

Other

From September 2025 FI Report: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6% (revised).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation
of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an
acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9%
in the second quarter, revised up 1.0 percentage point from the previous estimate.

THOUGHTS

First of all, I would like to congratulate Ken Smith on receiving the Distinguished Service Award from the AHFA last month at its Annual Meeting and CEO Conference in Savannah surrounded by many friends and colleagues. So well-deserved!

As for participants in our survey, average new orders have alternated back and forth between increases and decreases compared to the prior year (+7%, -3%, +13%, +3%, -1%, -9%, +1%, -5%, -3%).

Economic data and industry reports continue to be similarly mixed, with increases in Cyber Monday activity, new store openings and small gains in housing, offset by declines in Black Friday shopping, bankruptcy announcements, and overall consumer confidence.

There have certainly been bright spots (particularly in upper end), but this definitely makes it hard to feel overly confident in the overall economy and what 2026 will hold for the industry.

But on a positive note, year-to-date new orders have now pulled essentially even through September 2025 compared to 2024. So with the government shutdown behind us, less disruption in the economy going forward, and another interest rate cut (or two), I’m hopeful that 2026 can provide a return to normalcy and deliver on the unfulfilled promises of 2025.

Until our next report, wishing everyone a happy and safe holiday season with their families and friends.

MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance Partner

Mark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group.