EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were up 2% compared to the prior month of October 2025. However, new orders were down 2% in November 2025 compared to November 2024 and now year to date through November, new orders are now down 1% compared to 2024.
Shipments were down 10% compared to the prior month of October 2025 and down 6% compared to November 2024. Year to date through November 2025, shipments are now down 1% compared to 2024.
November 2025 backlogs were down 1% compared to November 2024, but up 3% from October 2025.
Receivable levels were up 1% from October 2025, but down 5% from November 2024.
Inventories were up 1% from October 2025 and up 4% from November 2024.
Payrolls were down 9% compared to October 2025, and down 3% compared to November 2024, which are materially in line with shipments.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. A 5.1-point upward revision to December’s reading of the Index resulted in a slight increase last month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—dropped by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”
Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.”
Consumers appeared more cautious about plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months. Consumers who said “yes” to buying big-ticket items ahead declined in January, those who said “maybe” rose, and those who responded “no” edged higher. Homebuying expectations continued to retreat. Plans to purchase refrigerators, dishwashers, furniture, and TVs decreased. Plans to buy electronics dipped in all categories besides smartphones, which continued to trend upward on a six-month moving average basis. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular within their categories for future purchases.
Housing
Existing-home sales increased by 5.1% in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem – including agents and homebuyers and sellers – with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
“2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth.
December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.”
“Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.”
Total Existing-Home Sales for November
- 5.1% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million.
- 1.4% decrease in sales year over year.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in November
- 5.1% increase in sales month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million, up 1.8% from December 2024.
- $409,500: Median home price in December, up 1.5% from December 2024.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in November
- 5.3% increase in sales month over month and year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 400,000, down 2.4% from last year.
- $364,400: Median price, up 0.1% from November 2024.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.19%: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in November, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.24% in November and 6.72% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000.
Compared to October 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 18.7% overall with sales also up 42.1% in the South, , up 21.3% in the Midwest, but down 40.0$ in the Northeast and down 24.8% in the West.
Other
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9 percent, both the same as previously estimated.
THOUGHTS
New orders dipped again in November 2025 compared to 2024, which drops the 2025 year to date back to below 2024 levels (-1%).
Consumer confidence and housing continue to seemingly be the main culprits, with the latter yet to fully realize the expected impact of the recent Federal Reserve cuts, which could take a while to work through the system. It will certainly be interesting to see what comes out of today’s (February 6th) meeting as well as the coming year given recent developments.
Tariffs on certain Indian goods were cut this week, while most within the industry wait to see how the Supreme Court ultimately rules on the overall situation. However, it seems most of the hard work is behind us as tariffs have become accepted and more integrated into operations.
So while 2025 is shaping up to end on a bit of a sluggish note for our participants with back-to-back down months (though December reporting still to come), hopefully the industry will continue to see a return to normalcy in 2026 allowing companies to capitalize on pent up demand and other opportunities for growth and prosperity.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance PartnerMark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group. |
